W. M. Alley, R. W. Healy, J. W. Labaugh, and T. E. Reilly, Flow and Storage in Groundwater Systems, Science, vol.296, issue.5575, pp.1985-1990, 2002.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1067123

N. Beaudoin, J. K. Saad, C. Van-laethem, J. M. Machet, J. Maucorps et al., Nitrate leaching in intensive agriculture in Northern France: Effect of farming practices, soils and crop rotations, Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, vol.111, issue.1-4, pp.292-310, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.agee.2005.06.006

M. Bechmann, J. Deelstra, P. Stalnacke, H. O. Eggestad, L. Oygarden et al., Monitoring catchment scale agricultural pollution in Norway: policy instruments, implementation of mitigation methods and trends in nutrient and sediment losses, Environmental Science & Policy, vol.11, issue.2, pp.102-114, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsci.2007.10.005

H. Behrendt, M. Kornmilch, D. Opitz, O. Schmoll, and G. Scholz, Estimation of the nutrient inputs into river systems - experiences from German rivers, Regional Environmental Change, vol.3, issue.1-3, pp.107-117, 2002.
DOI : 10.1007/s10113-002-0042-3

M. Benoit, J. Garnier, J. Anglade, and G. Billen, Nitrate leaching from organic and conventional arable crop farms in the Seine Basin (France), Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, vol.17, issue.3, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s10705-014-9650-9
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01194827

G. Billen and J. Garnier, Nitrogen transfers through the Seine drainage network: a budget based on the application of the ???Riverstrahler??? model, Hydrobiologia, vol.410, pp.139-150, 2000.
DOI : 10.1007/978-94-017-2163-9_16

G. Billen and J. Garnier, River basin nutrient delivery to the coastal sea: Assessing its potential to sustain new production of non-siliceous algae, Marine Chemistry, vol.106, issue.1-2, pp.148-160, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.marchem.2006.12.017

G. Billen, J. Garnier, A. Ficht, and C. Cun, Modeling the Response of Water Quality in the Seine River Estuary to Human Activity in Its Watershed over the Last 50 Years, Estuaries, vol.24, issue.6, pp.977-993, 2001.
DOI : 10.2307/1353011

G. Billen, J. Garnier, J. Némery, M. Sebilo, A. Sferratore et al., A long-term view of nutrient transfers through the Seine river continuum, Science of The Total Environment, vol.375, issue.1-3, pp.80-97, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.12.005
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00386805

G. Billen, L. Lassaletta, and J. Garnier, A biogeochemical view of the global agro-food system: Nitrogen flows associated with protein production, consumption and trade, Global Food Security, vol.3, issue.3-4, pp.209-219, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.gfs.2014.08.003
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01194907

G. Billen, L. Lassaletta, and J. Garnier, A vast range of opportunities for feeding the world in 2050: trade-off between diet, N contamination and international trade, Environmental Research Letters, vol.10, issue.2, p.25001, 2015.
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/025001
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01194904

F. Bouraoui and B. Grizzetti, Long term change of nutrient concentrations of rivers discharging in European seas, Science of The Total Environment, vol.409, issue.23, pp.4899-4916, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.015

M. Canton, P. Anschutz, D. Poirier, R. Chassagne, J. Deborde et al., The buffering capacity of a small estuary on nutrient fluxes originating from its catchment (Leyre estuary, SW France), Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, vol.99, pp.171-181, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecss.2011.12.030

K. G. Cassman, A. Dobermann, and D. T. Walters, Agroecosystems, Nitrogen-use Efficiency, and Nitrogen Management, AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, vol.31, issue.2, pp.132-140, 2002.
DOI : 10.1579/0044-7447-31.2.132

R. B. Cleveland, W. S. Cleveland, J. E. Mcrae, and I. Terpenning, STL: A seasonal-­?trend decomposition procedure based on Loess, Journal of Official Statistics, vol.6, pp.3-73, 1990.

W. S. Cleveland and S. J. Devlin, Locally Weighted Regression: An Approach to Regression Analysis by Local Fitting, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.41, issue.810345, pp.596-610, 1988.
DOI : 10.1080/01621459.1988.10478639

D. J. Conley, Terrestrial ecosystems and the global biogeochemical silica cycle, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol.5, issue.4, 2002.
DOI : 10.1029/2002GB001894

P. Cugier, G. Billen, J. F. Guillaud, J. Garnier, and A. Ménesguen, Modelling the eutrophication of the Seine Bight (France) under historical, present and future riverine nutrient loading, Journal of Hydrology, vol.304, issue.1-4, pp.381-396, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.07.049

P. Ekholm, K. Granlund, P. Kauppila, S. Mitikka, J. Niemi et al., Influence of EU policy on agricultural nutrient losses and the state of receiving surface waters in Finland, Agricultural and Food Science, vol.16, issue.4, pp.282-300, 2007.
DOI : 10.2137/145960607784125401

H. Etcheber, A. Taillez, G. Abril, J. Garnier, P. Servais et al., Particulate organic carbon in the estuarine turbidity maxima of the Gironde, Loire and Seine estuaries: origin and lability, Hydrobiologia, vol.46, issue.252, pp.245-259, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10750-007-0667-9

S. Even, B. Thouvenin, N. Bacq, G. Billen, J. Garnier et al., An integrated modelling approach to forecast the impact of human pressure in the Seine estuary, Hydrobiologia, vol.333, issue.476, pp.13-29, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10750-007-0649-y

C. Fisson, F. Leboulenger, T. Lecarpentier, S. Moussard, and G. Ranvier, L'estuaire de la Seine : état de santé et évolution, 2014.

V. Foussard, A. Cuvilliez, P. Fajon, C. Fisson, P. Lesueur et al., Évolution morphologique d'un estuaire anthropisé de 1800 à nos jours. Programme scientifique Seine-­?Aval, pp.2-3, 2010.

J. Garnier, G. Billen, S. Even, H. Etcheber, and P. Servais, Organic matter dynamics and budgets in the turbidity maximum zone of the Seine Estuary (France), Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, vol.77, issue.1, pp.150-162, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecss.2007.09.019
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00819181

J. Garnier, G. Billen, J. Némery, and M. Sebilo, Transformations of nutrients (N, P, Si) in the turbidity maximum zone of the Seine estuary and export to the sea, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, vol.90, issue.3, pp.129-141, 2010.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecss.2010.07.012
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00563909

J. Garnier, G. Billen, G. Vilain, M. Benoit, P. Passy et al., Curative vs. preventive management of nitrogen transfers in rural areas: Lessons from the case of the Orgeval watershed (Seine River basin, France), Journal of Environmental Management, vol.144, pp.125-134, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.04.030
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01194911

J. Garnier, P. Passy, V. Thieu, J. Callens, M. Silvestre et al., Fate of nutrients in the aquatic continuum of the Seine River and its estuary: Modelling the impacts of human activity changes The watershed biogeochemical dynamics at large river-­?coastal interfaces: Linkages with global climate change, p.671, 2013.

J. Garnier, G. Vilain, M. Silvestre, G. Billen, S. Jehanno et al., Budget of methane emissions from soils, livestock and the river network at the regional scale of the Seine basin (France), Biogeochemistry, vol.35, issue.2005, pp.199-214, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s10533-013-9845-1
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01019197

P. M. Glibert and J. M. Burkholder, The complex relationships between increasing fertilization of the earth, coastal eutrophication and proliferation of harmful algal blooms Ecology of Harmful Algae, pp.341-354, 2006.

B. Grizzetti, F. Bouraoui, G. Billen, H. Van-grinsven, A. C. Cardoso et al., Nitrogen as a threat to European water quality, 2011.
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511976988.020

M. A. Sutton, C. M. Howard, J. W. Erisman, G. Billen, A. Bleeker et al., The European nitrogen assessment, pp.379-404
DOI : 10.1017/CBO9780511976988

B. M. Jackson, C. A. Browne, A. P. Butler, D. Peach, A. J. Wade et al., Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications, Environmental Science & Policy, vol.11, issue.2, pp.125-135, 2008.
DOI : 10.1016/j.envsci.2007.10.006

D. Justi?, N. N. Rabalais, R. E. Turner, and Q. Dortch, Changes in nutrient structure of river-dominated coastal waters: stoichiometric nutrient balance and its consequences, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, vol.40, issue.3, pp.339-356, 1995.
DOI : 10.1016/S0272-7714(05)80014-9

R. Lafite, J. Garnier, and V. De-jonge, Consequences of estuarine management on hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. ECSA 38th Symposium -­? Rouen 2004 Co-­? organisation Seine-­?Aval Programme and ECSA, Hydrobiologia, vol.588, pp.1-302, 2007.

R. Lafite and L. A. Romaña, A man-altered macrotidal estuary: The Seine estuary (France): Introduction to the special issue, Estuaries, vol.24, issue.6, pp.939-939, 2001.
DOI : 10.1007/BF02691262

C. Lancelot, N. Gypens, G. Billen, J. Garnier, and V. Roubeix, Testing an integrated river???ocean mathematical tool for linking marine eutrophication to land use: The Phaeocystis-dominated Belgian coastal zone (Southern North Sea) over the past 50??years, Journal of Marine Systems, vol.64, issue.1-4, pp.216-228, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.03.010

C. Lancelot, V. Thieu, A. Polard, J. Garnier, G. Billen et al., Cost assessment and ecological effectiveness of nutrient reduction options for mitigating Phaeocystis colony blooms in the Southern North Sea: An integrated modeling approach, Science of The Total Environment, vol.409, issue.11, pp.2179-2191, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.02.023

E. Ledoux, E. Gomez, J. M. Monget, C. Viavattene, P. Viennot et al., Agriculture and groundwater nitrate contamination in the Seine basin. The STICS???MODCOU modelling chain, Science of The Total Environment, vol.375, issue.1-3, pp.33-47, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.12.002
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00578177

L. Hir, P. , S. Jacinto, R. Thouvenin, B. Guézennec et al., Courants, vagues et marées : les mouvements de l'eau, Seine Aval Programme. Ifremer, Quae Editions, p.31, 1999.

S. Lesourd, P. Lesueur, J. C. Brun-­?cottan, J. P. Auffret, N. Poupinet et al., Morphosedimentary Evolution of the Macrotidal Seine Estuary Subjected to Human Impact, Estuaries, vol.24, issue.6, pp.940-949, 2001.
DOI : 10.2307/1353008

P. Lesueur, S. Lesourd, J. Auffret, J. Avoine, P. Bassoullet et al., Sables, chenaux, vasières: dynamique des sédiments et évolution morphologique, Seine Aval Programme. Ifremer, Quae Editions, p.39, 2006.

Y. Li, E. P. Campbell, D. Haswell, R. J. Sneeuwjagt, and W. N. Venables, Statistical forecasting of soil dryness index in the southwest of Western Australia, Forest Ecology and Management, vol.183, issue.1-3, pp.147-157, 2003.
DOI : 10.1016/S0378-1127(03)00103-8

C. E. Lloyd, J. E. Freer, A. L. Collins, P. J. Johnes, and J. I. Jones, Methods for detecting change in hydrochemical time series in response to targeted pollutant mitigation in river catchments, Journal of Hydrology, vol.514, pp.297-312, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.036

H. Lu, Y. Li, M. A. Clilverd, and M. J. Jarvis, Trend and abrupt changes in long-term geomagnetic indices, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, vol.34, issue.12, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.asr.2003.01.029

N. Massei, B. Laignel, J. Deloffre, J. Mesquita, A. Motelay et al., Long-­? term hydrological changes of the Seine River flow (France), 2010.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00734862

M. Meybeck, G. De-marsily, and E. Fustec, La Seine en son bassin: fonctionnement écologique d'un système fluvial anthropisé, 1998.

C. Minaudo, M. Meybeck, F. Moatar, N. Gassama, and F. Curie, Eutrophication mitigation in rivers: 30 years of trends in spatial and seasonal patterns of biogeochemistry of the Loire River (1980???2012), Biogeosciences, vol.12, issue.8, pp.2549-2563, 2015.
DOI : 10.5194/bg-12-2549-2015
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01152849

S. Naeher, A. Huguet, C. L. Roose-­?amsaleg, A. M. Laverman, C. Fosse et al., Molecular and geochemical constraints on anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) in a riparian zone of the Seine Estuary (France), Biogeochemistry, vol.6, issue.1-2, pp.237-250, 2015.
DOI : 10.1007/s10533-014-0066-z
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01115721

J. Némery and J. Garnier, Typical features of particulate phosphorus in the Seine estuary (France), Hydrobiologia, vol.25, issue.4, pp.271-290, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s10750-007-0669-7

O. Oenema, A. Bleeker, N. A. Braathen, M. Bud?áková, K. Bull et al., Nitrogen in current European Policies The European Nitrogen Assessment, pp.62-81, 2011.

C. B. Officer and J. H. Ryther, The Possible Importance of Silicon in Marine Eutrophication, Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol.3, pp.83-91, 1980.
DOI : 10.3354/meps003083

P. Passy, J. Garnier, G. Billen, C. Fesneau, and J. Tournebize, Restoration of ponds in rural landscapes: Modelling the effect on nitrate contamination of surface water (the Seine River Basin, France), Science of The Total Environment, vol.430, pp.280-290, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.04.035
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01194584

P. Passy, N. Gypens, G. Billen, J. Garnier, V. Thieu et al., A model reconstruction of riverine nutrient fluxes and eutrophication in the Belgian Coastal Zone since 1984, Journal of Marine Systems, vol.128, pp.106-122, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2013.05.005
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01195675

P. Passy, L. Gendre, R. Garnier, J. Cugier, P. Callens et al., Eutrophication modelling chain for improved management strategies to prevent algal blooms in the Seine Bight Seasonal and long-­?term nutrient trend decomposition along a spatial gradient in the Neuse River watershed, Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser., in press Environ Sci Technol, vol.34, pp.4474-4482, 2000.

G. P. Robertson and P. M. Vitousek, Nitrogen in Agriculture: Balancing the Cost of an Essential Resource, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, vol.34, issue.1, pp.97-125, 2009.
DOI : 10.1146/annurev.environ.032108.105046

E. Romero, J. Garnier, L. Lassaletta, G. Billen, L. Gendre et al., Large-scale patterns of river inputs in southwestern Europe: seasonal and interannual variations and potential eutrophication effects at the coastal zone, Biogeochemistry, vol.150, issue.1, pp.481-505, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s10533-012-9778-0
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01195671

H. Seebens, D. Straile, R. Hoegg, H. Stich, and U. Einsle, Population dynamics of a freshwater calanoid copepod: Complex responses to changes in trophic status and climate variability, Limnology and Oceanography, vol.52, issue.6, pp.2364-2372, 2007.
DOI : 10.4319/lo.2007.52.6.2364

T. J. Smayda, Novel and nuisance phytoplankton blooms in the sea: evidence for a global epidemic, Toxic marine phytoplankton, pp.29-40, 1990.

K. Soetaert, J. J. Middelburg, C. Heip, P. Meire, S. Van-damme et al., Long-term change in dissolved inorganic nutrients in the heterotrophic Scheldt estuary (Belgium, The Netherlands), Limnology and Oceanography, vol.51, issue.1part2, pp.409-423, 2006.
DOI : 10.4319/lo.2006.51.1_part_2.0409

D. Scavia, J. C. Field, D. F. Boesch, R. W. Buddemeier, V. Burkett et al., Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems, Estuaries, vol.78, issue.2, pp.149-164, 2002.
DOI : 10.1007/BF02691304

P. J. Statham, Nutrients in estuaries ??? An overview and the potential impacts of climate change, Science of The Total Environment, vol.434, pp.213-227, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.09.088

E. Struyf and D. J. Conley, Silica: an essential nutrient in wetland biogeochemistry, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol.51, issue.2, pp.88-94, 2009.
DOI : 10.1016/j.chemgeo.2007.03.018

E. Struyf, A. Smis, S. Van-damme, J. Garnier, G. Govers et al., Historical land use change has lowered terrestrial silica mobilization, Nature Communications, vol.64, issue.8, pp.129-139, 1038.
DOI : 10.1038/ncomms1128

V. Thieu, G. Billen, J. Garnier, and M. Benoît, Nitrogen cycling in a hypothetical scenario of generalised organic agriculture in the Seine, Somme and Scheldt watersheds, Regional Environmental Change, vol.43, issue.2, pp.1-12, 2010.
DOI : 10.1007/s10113-010-0142-4

B. Ulén and J. Fölster, Recent trends in nutrient concentrations in Swedish agricultural rivers, Science of The Total Environment, vol.373, issue.2-3, pp.473-487, 2007.
DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2006.11.032

S. Van-damme, E. Struyf, T. Maris, T. Ysebaert, F. Dehairs et al., Spatial and temporal patterns of water quality along the estuarine salinity gradient of the Scheldt estuary (Belgium and The Netherlands): results of an integrated monitoring approach, Hydrobiologia, vol.39, issue.1-3, pp.29-45, 2005.
DOI : 10.1007/s10750-004-7102-2

H. J. Van-grinsven, L. Bouwman, K. G. Cassman, H. M. Van-es, M. L. Mccrackin et al., Losses of ammonia and nitrate from agriculture and their effect on nitrogen recovery in the European Union and the United States between, 1900.

G. Wriedt and F. Bouraoui, Towards a large scale assessment of water availability in Europe, European Commission Joint Research Centre, 2009.