T. J. Stohlgren and J. L. Schnase, Risk Analysis for Biological Hazards: What We Need to Know about Invasive Species, Risk Analysis, vol.77, issue.8, pp.163-173, 2006.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2006.00707.x

P. M. Vitousek, H. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, and J. M. Melillo, Human domination of Earth's ecosystems. Urban Ecology: An International Perspective on the Interaction Between Humans and Nature, pp.3-13, 2008.

G. Norton, I. Invasive species, databases, and decision making: critical issues Extension bulletin. Food and Fertilizer Technology Centre, 2005.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/in2p3-00011556

J. R. Britton, R. E. Gozlan, and G. H. Copp, Managing non-native fish in the environment, Fish and Fisheries, vol.16, issue.Suppl 1, pp.256-274, 2011.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2010.00390.x

S. H. Fernald, N. F. Caraco, and J. J. Cole, Changes in cyanobacterial dominance following the invasion of the zebra musselDreissena polymorpha: Long-term results from the Hudson River estuary, Estuaries and Coasts, vol.16, issue.1, pp.163-170, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/BF02782976

J. H. Myers, D. Simberloff, A. M. Kuris, and J. R. Carey, Eradication revisited: dealing with exotic species, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.15, issue.8, pp.316-320, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0169-5347(00)01914-5

M. J. Vander-zanden and J. D. Olden, A management framework for preventing the secondary spread of aquatic invasive species, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, vol.65, issue.7, pp.1512-1522, 2008.
DOI : 10.1139/F08-099

T. A. Crowl, T. O. Crist, R. R. Parmenter, G. Belovsky, and A. Lugo, The spread of invasive species and infectious disease as drivers of ecosystem change, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol.84, issue.5, pp.238-246, 2008.
DOI : 10.2307/4003709

M. Keith, A. S. Jaarsveld, and . Van, Revisiting green data species lists, Biodiversity and Conservation, vol.11, issue.7, pp.1313-1316, 2002.
DOI : 10.1023/A:1016013732600

B. Leung, An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol.269, issue.1508, pp.2407-2413, 2002.
DOI : 10.1098/rspb.2002.2179

G. H. Copp, Calibration of FISK, an Invasiveness Screening Tool for Nonnative Freshwater Fishes, Risk Analysis, vol.26, issue.Suppl D, pp.457-467, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01159.x

A. Jiménez-valverde, Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments, Biological Invasions, vol.157, issue.12, pp.2785-2797, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s10530-011-9963-4

Á. Ferincz, Risk assessment of non-native fishes in the catchment of the largest Central-European shallow lake (Lake Balaton, Hungary), Hydrobiologia, vol.17, issue.19, p.13, 2016.
DOI : 10.1111/fme.12147

P. E. Hulme, Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalization, Journal of Applied Ecology, vol.10, issue.1, pp.10-18, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01600.x

T. P. Moorhouse, W. David, and . Macdonald, Are invasives worse in freshwater than terrestrial ecosystems? WIREs Water, pp.1-8, 2015.

R. E. Gozlan, J. R. Britton, I. Cowx, and G. H. Copp, Current knowledge on non-native freshwater fish introductions, Journal of Fish Biology, vol.63, issue.Suppl. D, pp.751-786, 2010.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1095-8649.2010.02566.x

S. Villéger, S. Blanchet, O. Beauchard, T. Oberdorff, and S. Brosse, From current distinctiveness to future homogenization of the world's freshwater fish faunas, Diversity and Distributions, vol.106, issue.2, pp.223-235, 2015.
DOI : 10.1111/ddi.12242

D. Pimentel, R. Zuniga, and D. Morrison, Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the United States, Ecological Economics, vol.52, issue.3, pp.273-288, 2005.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2004.10.002

D. Savini, The top 27 animal alien species introduced into Europe for aquaculture and related activities, Journal of Applied Ichthyology, vol.32, issue.Suppl. 1, pp.1-7, 2010.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1439-0426.2010.01503.x

R. E. Gozlan, A. C. Pinder, and J. Shelley, Occurrence of the Asiatic cyprinid Pseudorasbora parva in England, Journal of Fish Biology, vol.25, issue.1, pp.298-300, 2002.
DOI : 10.1006/jfbi.2001.1580

R. E. Gozlan, Pan-continental invasion of Pseudorasbora parva: Towards a better understanding of freshwater fish invasions. Fish Fish, pp.315-340, 2010.

R. E. Gozlan, D. Burnard, J. R. Britton, and D. Andreou, Evidence of female preference for hidden sex signals in distant fish species, Behavioral Ecology, vol.25, issue.1, pp.53-57, 2014.
DOI : 10.1093/beheco/art084

J. R. Britton and R. E. Gozlan, How many founders for a biological invasion? Predicting introduction outcomes from propagule pressure, Ecology, vol.94, issue.11, pp.2558-2566, 2013.
DOI : 10.3391/ai.2010.5.2.04

A. C. Pinder, R. E. Gozlan, and J. R. Britton, Dispersal of the invasive topmouth gudgeon, Pseudorasbora parva in the UK: a vector for an emergent infectious disease, Fisheries Management and Ecology, vol.194, issue.6, pp.411-414, 2005.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1095-8649.2001.tb02325.x

D. Andreou, K. Arkush, J. F. Guegan, and R. E. Gozlan, Introduced Pathogens and Native Freshwater Biodiversity: A Case Study of Sphaerothecum destruens, PLoS ONE, vol.24, issue.5, pp.1-6, 2012.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0036998.t003

R. E. Gozlan, Current ecological understanding of fungal-like pathogens of fish: what lies beneath?, Frontiers in Microbiology, vol.5, pp.1-16, 2014.
DOI : 10.3389/fmicb.2014.00062

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01321245

M. C. Fitzpatrick, J. F. Weltzin, N. J. Sanders, and R. R. Dunn, The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range?, Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol.34, issue.1, pp.24-33, 2007.
DOI : 10.1603/0013-8746(2004)097[0513:COFCFN]2.0.CO;2

A. Guisan, B. Petitpierre, O. Broennimann, C. Daehler, and C. Kueffer, Unifying niche shift studies: insights from biological invasions, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol.29, issue.5, pp.260-269, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.tree.2014.02.009

R. A. Boria, L. E. Olson, S. M. Goodman, and R. P. Anderson, Spatial filtering to reduce sampling bias can improve the performance of ecological niche models, Ecological Modelling, vol.275, pp.73-77, 2014.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.012

K. P. Mainali, Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling, Global Change Biology, vol.18, issue.12, pp.4464-4480, 2015.
DOI : 10.1111/gcb.13038

R. J. Hijmans, S. E. Cameron, J. L. Parra, P. G. Jones, and A. Jarvis, Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas, International Journal of Climatology, vol.18, issue.15, pp.1965-1978, 2005.
DOI : 10.1002/joc.1276

D. Lin, D. P. Foster, and L. H. Ungar, VIF regression: a fast regression algorithm for large data, J. Am. Stat. Assoc, vol.493, pp.232-247, 2012.

A. Guisan and N. E. Zimmermann, Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology, Ecological Modelling, vol.135, issue.2-3, pp.147-186, 2000.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00354-9

B. A. Bradley, Global change, global trade, and the next wave of plant invasions, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol.98, issue.1, pp.20-28, 2012.
DOI : 10.1890/110145.s1

C. J. Vörösmarty, Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity, Nature, vol.16, issue.7315, pp.555-561, 2010.
DOI : 10.1038/nature09440

T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and A. Buja, Flexible Discriminant Analysis by Optimal Scoring, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol.56, issue.3, pp.1255-1270, 1994.
DOI : 10.1137/1.9781611970128

J. R. Busby, Nature Conservation: Cost Effective Biological Surveys and Data Analysis. BIOCLIM -A Bioclimatic Analysis and Prediction System, pp.64-68, 1991.

W. Thuiller, M. B. Araújo, and S. Lavorel, Generalized models vs. classification tree analysis: Predicting spatial distributions of plant species at different scales, Journal of Vegetation Science, vol.2, issue.11, pp.669-680, 2003.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2003.tb02199.x

M. S. Wisz, Effects of sample size on the performance of species distribution models, Diversity and Distributions, vol.34, issue.5, pp.763-773, 2008.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00482.x

G. G. Moisen and T. S. Frescino, Comparing five modelling techniques for predicting forest characteristics, Ecological Modelling, vol.157, issue.2-3, pp.209-225, 2002.
DOI : 10.1016/S0304-3800(02)00197-7

A. M. Prasad, L. R. Iverson, and A. Liaw, Newer Classification and Regression Tree Techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for Ecological Prediction, Ecosystems, vol.17, issue.6, pp.181-199, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s10021-005-0054-1

R. Ihaka and R. Gentleman, R: A Language for Data Analysis and Graphics, J. Comput. Graph. Stat, vol.5, pp.299-314, 1996.

W. Thuiller, D. George, and R. Engler, Ensemble platform for species distribution modelling. R package version 3.1-64, p.2, 2014.

W. Thuiller, B. Lafourcade, R. Engler, and M. B. Araújo, BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions, Ecography, vol.102, issue.3, pp.369-373, 2009.
DOI : 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05742.x

D. W. Hosmer and S. Lemeshow, Applied Logistic Regression, 2000.
DOI : 10.1002/0471722146

A. A. Makhrov, V. S. Artamonova, and D. P. Karabanov, Finding of topmouth gudgeon Pseudorasbora parva (Temminck et Schlegel) (Actinopterygii: Cyprinidae) in the Brahmaputra River basin (Tibetan Plateau, China), Russian Journal of Biological Invasions, vol.4, issue.3, pp.174-179, 2013.
DOI : 10.1134/S2075111713030089

F. G. Ekmekçi and ?. G. Kirankaya, Distribution of an invasive fish species, Pseudorasbora parva (Temminck and Schlegel, 1846) in Turkey, Turk. J. Zool, vol.30, pp.329-334, 2006.

V. Semenchenko, J. Grabowska, M. Grabowski, V. Rizevsky, and M. Pluta, Abstract, Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies, vol.40, issue.1, pp.57-67, 2011.
DOI : 10.2478/s13545-011-0007-6

A. Simon, Invasive Cyprinid Fish in Europe Originate from the Single Introduction of an Admixed Source Population Followed by a Complex Pattern of Spread, PLoS ONE, vol.273, issue.6, p.18560, 2011.
DOI : 10.1371/journal.pone.0018560.s003

A. Simon, R. E. Gozlan, J. R. Britton, C. Van-oosterhout, and B. Hänfling, Human induced stepping-stone colonisation of an admixed founder population: the spread of topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva) in Europe, Aquatic Sciences, vol.19, issue.942???15, pp.17-25, 2015.
DOI : 10.1007/s00027-014-0374-3

P. Py?ek and D. M. Richardson, 26316 | DOI: 10.1038/srep26316 51 Invasive Species, Environmental Change and Management, and Health, Scientific RepoRts | Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour, vol.6, issue.35, pp.25-55, 2010.

P. C. Pheloung, P. A. Williams, and S. R. Halloy, A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions, Journal of Environmental Management, vol.57, issue.4, pp.239-251, 1999.
DOI : 10.1006/jema.1999.0297

L. Vilizzi and G. H. Copp, Application of FISK, an invasiveness screening tool for non-native freshwater fishes, in the Murray-Darling Basin (southeastern Australia) Risk Anal, pp.1432-1440, 2013.

R. Britton, J. Pegg, J. Gozlan, and R. E. , Quantifying imperfect detection in an invasive pest fish and the implications for conservation management, Biological Conservation, vol.144, issue.9, pp.2177-2181, 2011.
DOI : 10.1016/j.biocon.2011.05.008

G. D. Davies, R. E. Gozlan, and J. Robert-britton, Can accidental introductions of non-native species be prevented by fish stocking audits?, Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems, vol.78, issue.Supplement D, pp.366-373, 2013.
DOI : 10.1002/aqc.2341

K. D. Arkush, L. Mendoza, M. A. Adkison, and R. P. Hedrick, Observations on the Life Stages of Sphaerothecum destruens n. g., n. sp., a Mesomycetozoean Fish Pathogen Formally Referred to as the Rosette Agent, The Journal of Eukaryotic Microbiology, vol.17, issue.6, pp.430-438, 2003.
DOI : 10.1002/(SICI)1097-010X(19990101)283:1<31::AID-JEZ5>3.0.CO;2-Q

F. Al-shorbaji, B. Roche, R. E. Gozlan, R. Britton, and D. Andreou, The consequences of reservoir host eradication on disease epidemiology in animal communities, Emerging Microbes & Infections, vol.81, issue.5, 2016.
DOI : 10.1038/emi.2016.46

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01327229

K. D. Arkush, S. Frasca, and R. P. Hedrick, Pathology Associated with the Rosette Agent, A Systemic Protist Infecting Salmonid Fishes, Journal of Aquatic Animal Health, vol.8, issue.1, pp.1-11, 1998.
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.93.21.11907

A. C. Pinder, G. D. Davies, M. Brazier, and J. R. Britton, A Case Study of the Population Ecology of a Topmouth Gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva) Population in the UK and the Implication for Native Fish Communities, Aquat. Conserv. Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst, vol.17, pp.749-759, 2007.

R. I. Colautti, I. A. Grigorovich, and H. J. Macisaac, Propagule Pressure: A Null Model for Biological Invasions, Biological Invasions, vol.136, issue.5, pp.1023-1037, 2006.
DOI : 10.1007/s10530-005-3735-y