L. Allison, E. Hawkins, and T. Woollings, An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Climate Dynamics, vol.37, issue.1-2, pp.163-190, 2014.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-014-2271-9

O. Aumont and L. Bopp, Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, vol.32, issue.2, pp.10-1029, 0200.
DOI : 10.1029/2005GB002591

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00138103

M. Balmaseda, F. Hernandez, and A. Storto, The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP), Journal of Operational Oceanography, vol.109, issue.19, pp.80-97, 2015.
DOI : 10.1029/2012GL051503

B. Barnier, L. Siefridt, and P. Marchesiello, Thermal forcing for a global ocean circulation model using a three-year climatology of ECMWF analyses, Journal of Marine Systems, vol.6, issue.4, pp.363-380, 1995.
DOI : 10.1016/0924-7963(94)00034-9

G. Boer, Long time-scale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models, Climate Dynamics, vol.23, issue.1, pp.29-44, 2004.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-004-0419-8

A. Born, J. Mignot, and T. Stocker, Multiple Equilibria as a Possible Mechanism for Decadal Variability in the North Atlantic Ocean, Journal of Climate, vol.28, issue.22, pp.8907-8922, 2015.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00813.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496548

A. Caya, M. Buehner, and T. Carrieres, Analysis and Forecasting of Sea Ice Conditions with Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and a Coupled Ice???Ocean Model, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, vol.27, issue.2, pp.353-369, 2010.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JTECHO701.1

M. Collins, M. Botzet, and A. Carril, Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study, Journal of Climate, vol.19, issue.7, pp.1195-1203, 2006.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3654.1

F. Counillon, I. Bethke, and N. Keenlyside, Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment, Tellus A, vol.40, issue.0, pp.1-21, 2014.
DOI : 10.1256/qj.05.137

S. Cunningham, T. Kanzow, and D. Rayner, Temporal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5??N, Science, vol.317, issue.5840, pp.935-938, 2007.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1141304

T. Delworth, S. Manabe, and R. Stouffer, Interdecadal Variations of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, 006<1993:IVOTTC>2.0.CO, pp.1993-2011, 1993.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1993:IVOTTC>2.0.CO;2

H. Ding, R. Greatbatch, and M. Latif, Hindcast of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 Climate Shifts in the Pacific, Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.19, pp.7650-7661, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00626.1

A. Duchez, J. Hirschi, and A. Blaker, A New Index for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26??N, Journal of Climate, vol.27, issue.17, p.140519141100008, 2014.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00052.1

A. Duchez, P. Courtois, and E. Harris, Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 $$^{\circ }$$ ??? N, Climate Dynamics, vol.33, issue.L17, pp.3351-3370, 2016.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1

J. Dufresne, M. Foujols, and S. Denvil, Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5, Climate Dynamics, vol.23, issue.13, pp.2123-2165, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00794170

N. Dunstone, D. Smith, R. Escudier, J. Mignot, and D. Swingedouw, Impact of atmosphere and sub-Surface ocean data on decadal climate prediction A 20-year coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere variability mode in the North Atlantic in an AOGCM, Geophys Res Lett Clim Dyn, vol.37, issue.40, pp.1-5, 2010.

T. Fichefet and M. Maqueda, Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.43, issue.C6, pp.12609-126463458, 1002.
DOI : 10.1029/97JC00480

C. Frankignoul and E. Kestenare, The surface heat flux feedback. Part I: estimates from observations in the Atlantic and the North Pacific, Clim Dyn, vol.19, pp.633-647, 2002.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00770821

E. Han, V. Merwade, and G. Heathman, Implementation of surface soil moisture data assimilation with watershed scale distributed hydrological model, Journal of Hydrology, vol.416, issue.417, pp.98-117, 2012.
DOI : 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.039

F. Hourdin, M. Foujols, and F. Codron, Impact of the LMDZ atmospheric grid configuration on the climate and sensitivity of the IPSL-CM5A coupled model, Climate Dynamics, vol.11, issue.9, pp.2167-2192, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-012-1411-3

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01096296

T. Huck, A. De-verdière, P. Estrade, and R. Schopp, Low-frequency variations of the large-scale ocean circulation and heat transport in the North Atlantic from 1955???1998 in situ temperature and salinity data, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.131, issue.23, pp.10-29, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL035635

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00405505

A. Karspeck, D. Stammer, and A. Köhl, Comparison of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between 1960 and 2007 in six ocean reanalysis products. Clim Dyn, pp.382-397, 2015.

C. Kissel, A. Van-toer, and C. Laj, Variations in the strength of the North Atlantic bottom water during Holocene, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, vol.369, issue.370, pp.248-259, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.042

G. Krinner, N. Viovy, and N. De-noblet-ducoudré, A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmospherebiosphere system, Glob Biogeochem Cycles, vol.19, pp.1015-1025, 2005.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00374606

W. Large and S. Yeager, The global climatology of an interannually varying air???sea flux data set, Climate Dynamics, vol.17, issue.2-3, pp.341-364, 2009.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-008-0441-3

M. Latif, E. Roeckner, and M. Botzet, Reconstruct- ing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature, J Clim, vol.172, pp.1605-1614, 2004.

J. Luo, S. Masson, and S. Behera, Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts, Journal of Climate, vol.18, issue.21, pp.4474-4497, 2005.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI3526.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00124684

G. Madec, . Note, J. Ipsl-marotzke, R. Giering, and K. Zhang, NEMO ocean engine Technical Construction of the adjoint MIT ocean general circulation model and application to Atlantic heat transport sensitivity, J Geophys Res, vol.104547, pp.529-529, 1999.

D. Matei, J. Baehr, and J. Jungclaus, Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5??N, Science, vol.335, issue.6064, pp.76-79, 2012.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1210299

G. Mccarthy, I. Haigh, and J. Hirschi, Ocean impact on decadal Atlantic climate variability revealed by sea-level observations, Nature, vol.3, issue.7553, pp.508-510, 1038.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<2147:AMTETS>2.0.CO;2

G. Meehl, L. Goddard, and G. Boer, Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol.95, issue.2, pp.243-267, 2014.
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01496421

H. Mercier, P. Lherminier, and A. Sarafanov, Variability of the meridional overturning circulation at the Greenland???Portugal OVIDE section from 1993 to 2010, Progress in Oceanography, vol.132, pp.250-261, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2013.11.001

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01151408

J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, and J. Deshayes, On the evolution of the oceanic component of the IPSL climate models from CMIP3 to CMIP5: A mean state comparison, Ocean Modelling, vol.72, pp.167-184, 2013.
DOI : 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.09.001

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00941568

J. Mignot, J. García-serrano, and D. Swingedouw, Decadal prediction skill in the ocean with surface nudging in the IPSL- CM5A-LR climate model. Clim Dyn 1?22, 2015.
URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01390803

R. Msadek, K. Dixon, T. Delworth, and W. Hurlin, Assessing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and associated fingerprints, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.33, issue.19, pp.10-1029, 2010.
DOI : 10.1029/2010GL044517

P. Ortega, E. Hawkins, and R. Sutton, Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM, Climate Dynamics, vol.16, issue.1, pp.1771-1782, 2011.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-011-1025-1

P. Ortega, J. Mignot, and D. Swingedouw, Reconciling two alternative mechanisms behind bi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic, Progress in Oceanography, vol.137, pp.237-249, 2015.
DOI : 10.1016/j.pocean.2015.06.009

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01176201

A. Persechino, J. Mignot, and D. Swingedouw, Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, Climate Dynamics, vol.33, issue.1, pp.2359-2380, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-012-1466-1

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00873371

H. Pohlmann, J. Jungclaus, and A. Köhl, Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic, Journal of Climate, vol.22, issue.14, pp.3926-3938, 2001.
DOI : 10.1175/2009JCLI2535.1

S. Ray, D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, and E. Guilyardi, Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949???2005, Climate Dynamics, vol.39, issue.3???4, pp.2333-2349, 1949.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-014-2358-3

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01141663

T. Reichler, J. Kim, E. Manzini, and J. Kroger, A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability, Nature Geoscience, vol.115, issue.11, pp.783-787, 2012.
DOI : 10.1038/ngeo1586

J. Robson, D. Hodson, E. Hawkins, and R. Sutton, Atlantic overturning in decline?, Nature Geoscience, vol.112, issue.1, pp.2-3, 2014.
DOI : 10.1038/ngeo2050

J. Servonnat, J. Mignot, and E. Guilyardi, Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework, Climate Dynamics, vol.57, issue.4, pp.315-338, 2015.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-014-2184-7

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01135684

F. Sévellec and A. Fedorov, The Leading, Interdecadal Eigenmode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Realistic Ocean Model, Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.7, pp.2160-2183, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00023.1

L. Shaffrey, D. Hodson, and J. Robson, Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation, Climate Dynamics, vol.26, issue.1-2, pp.382-398, 2016.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2

D. Smeed, G. Mccarthy, and S. Cunningham, Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004&ndash;2012, Ocean Science, vol.10, issue.1, pp.29-38, 2004.
DOI : 10.5194/os-10-29-2014

K. Speer and E. Tziperman, Rates of Water Mass Formation in the North Atlantic Ocean, Journal of Physical Oceanography, vol.22, issue.1, pp.93-104, 1992.
DOI : 10.1175/1520-0485(1992)022<0093:ROWMFI>2.0.CO;2

K. Stewart and T. Haine, Wind-driven Arctic freshwater anomalies, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.131, issue.3, pp.6196-6201, 1961.
DOI : 10.1029/2008JC005000

D. Swingedouw, P. Braconnot, and P. Delecluse, The impact of global freshwater forcing on the thermohaline circulation: adjustment of North Atlantic convection sites in a CGCM, Climate Dynamics, vol.399, issue.2-3, pp.291-305, 2007.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-006-0171-3

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00124961

D. Swingedouw, J. Mignot, and S. Labetoulle, Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50??years in a climate model, Climate Dynamics, vol.14, issue.1???2, pp.2381-2399, 2013.
DOI : 10.1007/s00382-012-1516-8

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00833022

H. Tatebe, M. Ishii, and T. Mochizuki, The Initialization of the MIROC Climate Models with Hydrographic Data Assimilation for Decadal Prediction, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, vol.90, issue.0, pp.275-294, 2012.
DOI : 10.2151/jmsj.2012-A14

M. Thoma, R. Gerdes, R. Greatbatch, and H. Ding, Partially coupled spin-up of the MPI-ESM: implementation and first results, Geoscientific Model Development, vol.8, issue.1, pp.51-68, 2015.
DOI : 10.5194/gmd-8-51-2015

D. Thornalley, M. Blaschek, and F. Davies, Long-term variations in Iceland???Scotland overflow strength during the Holocene, Climate of the Past, vol.9, issue.5, pp.2073-2084, 2013.
DOI : 10.5194/cp-9-2073-2013-supplement

V. Turpin, R. E. , L. Traon, and P. , How essential are Argo observations to constrain a global ocean data assimilation system?, Ocean Science, vol.12, issue.1, pp.257-274, 2016.
DOI : 10.5194/os-12-257-2016

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01498126

G. Vecchi, R. Msadek, and T. Delworth, Comment on "Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5??N", Science, vol.338, issue.6107, pp.604-614, 2012.
DOI : 10.1126/science.1222566

URL : https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01495178

G. Walin, On the relation between sea-surface heat flow and thermal circulation in the ocean, 1982.

J. Willis, Can in situ floats and satellite altimeters detect longterm changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning?, Geophys Res Lett, vol.37, pp.1-5, 2010.

X. Yang, A. Rosati, and S. Zhang, A Predictable AMO-Like Pattern in the GFDL Fully Coupled Ensemble Initialization and Decadal Forecasting System, Journal of Climate, vol.26, issue.2, pp.650-661, 2013.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1

S. Yeager, A. Karspeck, and G. Danabasoglu, A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content, Journal of Climate, vol.25, issue.15, pp.5173-5189, 2012.
DOI : 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1

R. Zhang, Coherent surface-subsurface fingerprint of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Geophysical Research Letters, vol.27, issue.24, pp.20705-20715, 2008.
DOI : 10.1029/2008GL035463

S. Zhang, A. Rosati, and T. Delworth, The Adequacy of Observing Systems in Monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and North Atlantic Climate, Journal of Climate, vol.23, issue.19, pp.5311-5324, 2010.
DOI : 10.1175/2010JCLI3677.1