Article Dans Une Revue Infectious Disease Modelling Année : 2021

Risk of COVID-19 variant importation – How useful are travel control measures?

Résumé

We consider models for the importation of a new variant COVID-19 strain in a location already seeing propagation of a resident variant. By distinguishing contaminations generated by imported cases from those originating in the community, we are able to evaluate the contribution of importations to the dynamics of the disease in a community. We find that after an initial seeding, the role of importations becomes marginal compared to that of community-based propagation. We also evaluate the role of two travel control measures, quarantine and travel interruptions. We conclude that quarantine is an efficacious way of lowering importation rates, while travel interruptions have the potential to delay the consequences of importations but need to be applied within a very tight time window following the initial emergence of the variant.
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Dates et versions

hal-03335203 , version 1 (06-09-2021)

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Julien Arino, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Evan Milliken, Stéphanie Portet. Risk of COVID-19 variant importation – How useful are travel control measures?. Infectious Disease Modelling, 2021, 6, pp.875 - 897. ⟨10.1016/j.idm.2021.06.006⟩. ⟨hal-03335203⟩
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