Mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks in workplaces and schools by hybrid telecommuting - Sorbonne Université
Article Dans Une Revue PLoS Computational Biology Année : 2021

Mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks in workplaces and schools by hybrid telecommuting

Résumé

The COVID-19 epidemic has forced most countries to impose contact-limiting restrictions at workplaces, universities, schools, and more broadly in our societies. Yet, the effectiveness of these unprecedented interventions in containing the virus spread remain largely unquantified. Here, we develop a simulation study to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks on three real-life contact networks stemming from a workplace, a primary school and a high school in France. Our study provides a fine-grained analysis of the impact of contact-limiting strategies at workplaces, schools and high schools, including: (1) Rotating strategies, in which workers are evenly split into two shifts that alternate on a daily or weekly basis; and (2) On-Off strategies, where the whole group alternates periods of normal work interactions with complete telecommuting. We model epidemics spread in these different setups using a stochastic discrete-time agent-based transmission model that includes the coronavirus most salient features: super-spreaders, infectious asymptomatic individuals, and pre-symptomatic infectious periods. Our study yields clear results: the ranking of the strategies, based on their ability to mitigate epidemic propagation in the network from a first index case, is the same for all network topologies (workplace, primary school and high school). Namely, from best to worst: Rotating week-by-week, Rotating day-by-day, On-Off week-by-week, and On-Off day-by-day. Moreover, our results show that below a certain threshold for the original local reproduction number within the network (< 1.52 for primary schools, < 1.30 for the workplace, < 1.38 for the high school, and < 1.55 for the random graph), all four strategies efficiently control outbreak by decreasing effective local reproduction number to < 1. These results can provide guidance for public health decisions related to telecommuting.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
journal.pcbi.1009264.pdf (2.45 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Publication financée par une institution

Dates et versions

hal-03351623 , version 1 (22-09-2021)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Simon Mauras, Vincent Cohen-Addad, Guillaume Duboc, Max Dupré La Tour, Paolo Frasca, et al.. Mitigating COVID-19 outbreaks in workplaces and schools by hybrid telecommuting. PLoS Computational Biology, 2021, 17 (8), pp.1-24. ⟨10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009264⟩. ⟨hal-03351623⟩
222 Consultations
96 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More