Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies

Abstract : Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) construct of ozone regression models attributes ozone changes to EESC changes using a single value of the sensitivity of ozone to EESC over the whole period. Using space-based total column ozone (TCO) measurements, and a synthetic TCO time series constructed such that EESC does not fall below its late 1990s maximum, we demonstrate that the EESC-based estimates of ozone changes in the polar regions (70–90°) after 2000 may, falsely, suggest an EESC-driven increase in ozone over this period. An EESC-based regression of our synthetic “failed Montreal Protocol with constant EESC” time series suggests a positive TCO trend that is statistically significantly different from zero over 2001–2012 when, in fact, no recovery has taken place. Our analysis demonstrates that caution needs to be exercised when using explanatory variables, with a single fit coefficient, fitted to the entire data record, to interpret changes in only part of the record.
Complete list of metadata

Cited literature [14 references]  Display  Hide  Download
Contributor : Hal Sorbonne Université Administateur Connect in order to contact the contributor
Submitted on : Wednesday, March 11, 2015 - 1:56:12 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, November 16, 2021 - 4:04:54 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Monday, April 17, 2017 - 7:44:22 AM


Publisher files allowed on an open archive



Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, G. E. Bodeker, H. K. Roscoe, Prijitha J. Nair. A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies. Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union, 2015, 42 (1), pp.162-168. ⟨10.1002/2014GL062142⟩. ⟨hal-01130187⟩



Les métriques sont temporairement indisponibles