A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies - Sorbonne Université Access content directly
Journal Articles Geophysical Research Letters Year : 2015

A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies

Abstract

Equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) construct of ozone regression models attributes ozone changes to EESC changes using a single value of the sensitivity of ozone to EESC over the whole period. Using space-based total column ozone (TCO) measurements, and a synthetic TCO time series constructed such that EESC does not fall below its late 1990s maximum, we demonstrate that the EESC-based estimates of ozone changes in the polar regions (70–90°) after 2000 may, falsely, suggest an EESC-driven increase in ozone over this period. An EESC-based regression of our synthetic “failed Montreal Protocol with constant EESC” time series suggests a positive TCO trend that is statistically significantly different from zero over 2001–2012 when, in fact, no recovery has taken place. Our analysis demonstrates that caution needs to be exercised when using explanatory variables, with a single fit coefficient, fitted to the entire data record, to interpret changes in only part of the record.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Kuttippurath_2015_A_cautionary_note.pdf (431.24 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origin Publisher files allowed on an open archive
Loading...

Dates and versions

hal-01130187 , version 1 (11-03-2015)

Identifiers

Cite

Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath, G. E. Bodeker, H. K. Roscoe, Prijitha J. Nair. A cautionary note on the use of EESC-based regression analysis for ozone trend studies. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015, 42 (1), pp.162-168. ⟨10.1002/2014GL062142⟩. ⟨hal-01130187⟩
243 View
120 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Mastodon Facebook X LinkedIn More