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Parallel trends in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and retail/recreation and public transport mobility during non-lockdown periods

Abstract : Recent literature strongly supports the hypothesis that mobility restriction and social distancing play a crucial role in limiting the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). During the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it was shown that mobility restriction reduced transmission significantly. This study found that, in the period between the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was high positive correlation between trends in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and mobility. These two trends oscillated simultaneously, and increased mobility following the relaxation of lockdown rules was significantly associated with increased transmission. From a public health perspective, these results highlight the importance of tracking changes in mobility when relaxing mitigation measures in order to anticipate future changes in the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
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Submitted on : Friday, April 9, 2021 - 4:04:14 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, April 20, 2021 - 7:07:29 PM

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Bernard Cazelles, Catherine Comiskey, Benjamin Nguyen-Van-Yen, Clara Champagne, Benjamin Roche. Parallel trends in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and retail/recreation and public transport mobility during non-lockdown periods. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Elsevier, 2021, 104, pp.693-695. ⟨10.1016/j.ijid.2021.01.067⟩. ⟨hal-03134842v2⟩

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