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Article Dans Une Revue Canadian Journal of Cardiology Année : 2021

External Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Ventricular Arrhythmias in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

Résumé

The new 5-years ventricular arrhythmia (VA) occurrence risk model is a major breakthrough for arrhythmic-risk stratification in the challenging ARVC population. In the original study, the model resulted in a 20.6% reduction in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement as compared with the 2015 consensus, for the same protection level. However, only internal validation was performed, limiting generalization. Here, we externally validated the model in a European tertiary care cohort of 128 ARVC patients with restrictive indications for primary prevention ICD placement. Overall, 74% were men, none had VA history and a single patient had an ICD at baseline. Median age at diagnosis was 38 years (interquartile range [IQR] [28-50]). During a median follow-up of 7.8 years [IQR (6.1-9.7)], 15 (12%) patients experienced VA. The model provided good discrimination, with a C-index for 5-year VA risk prediction of 0.84 [95% confidence interval (0.74-0.93)] (Figure 1). However, the model led to an overestimation of the 5-year VA risk when applying thresholds <50%. With a <10% predicted risk, no patient showed VA. With a 7.5% predicted risk, the ICD:VA ratio was 6.3 versus 3.4 in original study. The model still outperformed the 2015 International Task Force Consensus. Overall, in a relatively large European ARVC cohort with restrictive indications for ICD placement, the ARVC model for VA prediction successfully identified ARVC patients with VA during follow-up. Yet, our study underlines the need for careful threshold selection considering the model's associated risk overestimation in low- to intermediate-risk patients.
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Dates et versions

hal-03162534 , version 1 (08-03-2021)

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Pierre Baudinaud, Mikael Laredo, Nicolas Badenco, Stéphanie Rouanet, Xavier Waintraub, et al.. External Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Ventricular Arrhythmias in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy. Canadian Journal of Cardiology, 2021, ⟨10.1016/j.cjca.2021.02.018⟩. ⟨hal-03162534⟩
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