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Article Dans Une Revue Atmospheric Environment Année : 2021

On the contribution of global aviation to the CO2 radiative forcing of climate

Résumé

The aviation sector contributes to anthropogenic climate change through both CO 2 and non-CO 2 radiative effects. The CO 2 effect is considered to be much more certain than the non-CO 2 effects, yet there are relatively few studies that quantify it. Building on the scientific literature on burden sharing in the wake of the "Brazilian proposal", we discuss how to best attribute a fraction of the CO 2 radiative forcing to the aviation sector. For this we use the OSCAR compact Earth System model to estimate a contribution of aviation to the CO 2 concentration of 2.18 ppm in 2018. We further estimate the aviation contribution to the 2018 CO 2 radiative forcing to be 34.6, 32.6, 32.2 and 28.8 mW m − 2 for the proportional, differential, time-sliced and marginal methods, respectively. The time-sliced method has our preference because it is invariant upon disaggregation or recombination and can differentiate the relative impacts of early and late emissions. It leads to a radiative forcing estimate that is 12% larger than the residual method that is commonly used despite not being additive. This work has implications on the total-to-CO 2 RF ratio and the assessment of potential mitigation measures involving a trade-off between the CO 2 and non-CO 2 radiative effects of aviation.
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Dates et versions

hal-03405383 , version 1 (27-10-2021)

Licence

Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale - Pas de modification

Identifiants

Citer

Olivier Boucher, Audran Borella, Thomas Gasser, Didier Hauglustaine. On the contribution of global aviation to the CO2 radiative forcing of climate. Atmospheric Environment, 2021, 267, pp.118762. ⟨10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118762⟩. ⟨hal-03405383⟩
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