Towards zero variance estimators for rare event probabilities
Résumé
Improving Importance Sampling estimators for rare event probabilities requires sharp approximations of conditional densities. This is achieved for events E_{n}:=(f(X₁)+...+f(X_{n}))∈A_{n} where the summands are i.i.d. and E_{n} is a large or moderate deviation event. The approximation of the conditional density of the real r.v's X_{i} 's , for 1≤i≤k_{n} with repect to E_{n} on long runs, when k_{n}/n→1, is handled. The maximal value of k compatible with a given accuracy is discussed; algorithms and simulated results are presented.
Domaines
Calcul [stat.CO]
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Towards_zero_variance_estimators_for_rare_event_probabilities_Definitif_version_Statistics_Computer_eps.pdf (431.03 Ko)
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